Hall of Fame or Hall of Shame

The Alaska legislature is considering a revision of the oil and gas tax structure in the State of Alaska. There are several estimates of the impact of the change, and not all agree; but it is clear that the proposed change will transfer billions of dollars from the State General Fund to the pockets of the oil and gas industry in the coming years.

How do the legislators know if they are making the right decision?

How will their decision be evaluated in the future?

When will the chickens come home to roost? (sooner than you think!)

Those legislators that vote for the change in oil and gas taxes will either be elevated to the Hall of Fame if they are correct or the Hall of Shame if they are wrong. What is clear is that their vote will certainly be remembered. The next question is how do we know if they should be elevated to the hall of fame or relegated to the hall of shame?

In the article that follows I propose a standard upon which they should be reviewed and I share my concerns with the process and the information that has formed the basis of their proposed legislative change.

The Standard of Review.

Each fall the Department of Revenue produces the Fall Revenue Sources Book for that year. The section of the Book that is the most important for purposes of our discussion is the production projection section. Read pp. 40-45 of the Fall 2012 Revenue Sources Book starting at 4. Crude Oil Production. I recommend legislators read this section because it will be the standard upon which they will be evaluated.

The Revenue Sources Book projects a High Case, a Low Case, and a Risk Adjusted Case. The Risk Adjusted Case is the Department of Revenue’s projection of production in the future based on the current tax structure. (See Figure 4-12, at p. 44).

If future production is equal to or less than the Risk Adjusted Case then the reduction in tax and the transfer of billions of dollars in revenue from the General Fund to the oil and gas industry will be a failure, and the governor and the legislators that voted for the tax should be held accountable.

If future production is greater than the high case projection, then the reduction in tax will be deemed a glowing success and the governor and the legislators who voted for the reduction in tax should be voted into the Hall of Fame because they have made a great decision on behalf of the State of Alaska.

If future production is greater that the Risk Adjusted Case and less than the High Case then the result is uncertain. It will depend on how close production is to the Risk Adjusted Case or the High Case. In this world those in favor of the tax and those against the tax will both have justification to argue for their positions.

Some have argued that all the industry has to do is make sure the decline curve is less than 6% in order to show success, but this is not the case. The Risk Adjusted Case in the near term is a much lower decline curve than that. The Risk Adjusted Case has an Alaska North Slope production decline as follows:

Year    Production      Prod Decline   Percent Decline

2013    552.8

2014    538.4               14.4                 2.6%

2015    518.6               19.8                 3.7%

2016    499.7               18.9                 3.6%

2017    476.1               23.6                 4.7%

2018    442.9               33.2                 7.0%
 

If the industry doesn’t beat the Risk Adjusted Case over the next few years, then the reduction in tax will have been an unfortunate decision.

For a more detailed analysis of the Department of Revenue Forecast see C-2b Crude Oil Production – Forecast at p. 105 of the Fall 2012 Revenue Sources Book.

For those of you that believe the decision cannot be reviewed in the short term because it takes 6-10 years for an exploration project to come on line, you have been misinformed. Production impact can be seen in a much shorter timeframe.

We are talking about increasing production between the Colville and the Canning Rivers, in essence in or near existing fields. Production in or near existing fields can be brought on-line in as few as 2 years. If you need authority for this position, you need only look at the development of Meltwater and Tarn. I was the permitting director on Tarn and I know how long it took. The impact on the Department of Revenue Forecast can be impacted as soon as the wells are on the books to drill, and certainly by the time they are completed. Clearly before the next election cycle there will be sufficient information to begin to see if the reduction in tax has been a success or failure.

Concerns with process and information

The governor has proposed that new additional production will more than exceed the revenue given up in the reduction in tax. But where will that production come from, and is there sufficient production (beyond what is already projected in the Risk Adjusted Case) to account for the increase.

Once again I refer you to the Fall 2012 Revenue Sources Book at page 45. The Department makes reference to the 2007 U.S. Department of Energy Report. The Report projects the Mean Technically Recoverable Oil for the Alaska North Slope State lands (Colville-Canning Area) to be  4.5 billion barrels of oil or only 11.7% of the Mean Technically Recoverable Oil on the North Slope. If you add NPRA to that number, you increase the percent to 14.1 percent. That means that over 85% of the Mean Technically Recoverable Oil on the North Slope is not affected by the change in tax because 85% of the Mean Technically Recoverable Oil is on federal lands and cannot be taxed by the State of Alaska. Some would point out that 27.2% of that oil is projected to be in ANWR. This is true, but that would mean that 58.6% of the oil would still come from the federal offshore that cannot be taxed by the State of Alaska, and no change in the tax will impact industry decision-making in those areas.

Another interesting fact, if you add up all the production the Department of Revenue projects to be produced between 2013 and 2022 you come up with 4.5 billion barrels. The Department of Revenue is projecting that industry will produce all of the Mean Technically Recoverable Oil based on the current tax regime. Clearly the legislature has a lot of questions to ask before it is ready to pass a change in the oil and gas tax.

Next, I am concerned that the governor is withholding information from the legislature and the Alaska public. If the governor has asked for and received reports from other consultants, whether favorable or unfavorable to his position, he is obligated to release them to the public. If the information is adverse to the governor’s position, the governor is subject to being accused of abusing his position and manipulating the data upon which the legislature is making its decision. First it is a breach of ethics and second it is probably illegal. The Alaska Public Records Act, by letter and intent, requires to governor to provide the reports timely, in this instance, before any vote on the subject of oil and gas taxes is made. The entire legislature should demand nothing less. This is not a political issue. It is the responsibility of the sovereign to make sure a thorough and complete review and analysis is done by the legislature prior to making decision of such magnitude. If the governor is withholding reports he has received, he is violating his responsibility to the people of the State of Alaska. If he does not have the integrity to uphold his responsibility to the people, the legislature should do so for him. The legislature should stall the vote until they have all the pertinent information upon which to base their decision. They should then review the reports proceed ahead with the legislation as they see fit.

 

In conclusion, I am surprised that the administration has not put forth more factual/statistical data to back up their proposal. The governor cannot merely make projections based on the numbers he hopes will occur. He must analyze the possibility that his projections might occur. I have reviewed his projections and I cannot back them up with data.

The legislature should not pass such a significant piece of legislation without understanding the reasonable possibility of its success. Merely "going with the party" because they are prodevelopment is not sufficient in this case. The result could cost the state billions of dollars and could cost the proponents their next election.